Ole Miss showed us Louisville can go toe-to-toe with a great team. Villanova gave the Cards a chance to reset, clean some things up and get back in the win column.
Now comes the one we’ve been waiting for.
SMU comes to L&N Stadium on Saturday with a lot of big implications attached.
1. Story of the Game: Brohm Has a Plan
SMU wants to play fast. That shouldn’t catch Louisville by surprise.
If anything, the Ole Miss opener may end up being a valuable dress rehearsal. Louisville has already spent four quarters dealing with pace, getting calls in quickly and trying to get lined up against an offense determined to keep the defense uncomfortable. (Something we have struggled with over the last few years).
I think Jeff Brohm has this team ready for it.
SMU’s tempo isn’t going to be the thing that beats Louisville. The Cards should be prepared, fired up and comfortable playing at that speed.
The pace shouldn’t surprise us. What happens after the snap will decide it.
2. Know the Opponent: SMU Isn’t the New Kid Anymore
SMU doesn’t need to prove it belongs in the ACC.
The Mustangs officially joined the conference in 2024, immediately went 8-0 in ACC play, reached the ACC Championship Game and earned an at-large berth in the 2024 College Football Playoff.
They followed that with another nine-win season and have opened 2026 at 2-0.
The takeaway is pretty simple:
SMU isn’t a surprise anymore. This is an established ACC contender that fully expects to win games like this.
3. By the Numbers: 9.2
That’s how many yards SMU is averaging per offensive play through two games.
Not per pass. Per play!
The Mustangs have piled up 1,132 yards on 123 snaps, averaging 566 yards per game.
Yes, it’s only two games.
Yes, UC Davis helps the average.
But 9.2 yards every time you snap the football is absurd. Louisville cannot give this offense free explosive plays!
4. Watch This Early: Is the Offensive Line Moving Anybody?
Forget rushing yards for a minute.
Watch the line of scrimmage.
Louisville finished with 260 rushing yards against Villanova, which looks great in the box score.
But I still didn’t come away feeling like the offensive line consistently displaced Villanova’s front and opened huge running lanes. A lot of the production felt like Louisville’s backs creating something rather than simply running through open grass.
Against SMU, I want to see movement.
Are we getting push? Are linebackers having to step backward? Are Brown and company getting to the second level before having to create on their own?
If Louisville starts moving people early, I’ll feel a whole lot better about where this game is headed.
5. Deciding Matchup: Louisville’s Pass Rush vs. Kevin Jennings
This one feels enormous.
Villanova had a game plan designed to neutralize Louisville’s edge rushers and get the football out. The final score was dominant, but it wasn’t necessarily a game where the pass rush got to pin its ears back and wreck everything.
Saturday is different.
Kevin Jennings has completed 40 of 52 passes for 767 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions through two games. SMU has allowed only one sack all season.
If Jennings gets to stand comfortably in the pocket all afternoon, we’ve already seen what he’s capable of doing.
Louisville doesn’t necessarily need six sacks.
It needs disruption. Move him. Hit him. Speed up his internal clock. Make him throw before he wants to.
Don’t let Jennings play seven-on-seven.
6. Their Guy: Ahmaad Moses
There are plenty of offensive names to know for SMU, but I’m going defense here.
Ahmaad Moses is everywhere.
The veteran safety finished last season with 104 tackles, five interceptions and 5.5 tackles for loss, earning first-team All-ACC honors.
He’s experienced, aggressive and exactly the type of defensive back Lincoln Kienholz cannot afford to lose sight of.
Know where No. 7 is.
7. 502 MVP: Lincoln Kienholz
This game is going to tell us a lot about Lincoln Kienholz.
Through two games, the numbers are excellent: 639 passing yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions and a 68% completion rate.
But I’m still watching some of the details.
At times, he locks onto a receiver. We’ve seen sluggish starts. We’ve seen some easy underneath throws left on the field before he settles into the game.
Those things become much more expensive against SMU.
If Lincoln comes out hot, gets through his progressions, takes the easy completion when it’s there and plays settled football from the opening possession, Louisville has a really good chance to win this game.
We cannot spend another first quarter waiting for the offense to arrive.
This is the afternoon where the quarterback can take a significant step forward.
502 MVP Pick: Lincoln Kienholz
8. Did You Know? 28-5
SMU is 28-5 against conference opponents since 2022.
That’s a hell of a number.
But there’s an important asterisk: SMU didn’t join the ACC until 2024, so that 28-5 mark also includes its final seasons in the American Athletic Conference.
Since joining the ACC, the winning hasn’t slowed down much.
In other words, change the conference and SMU has continued to win at a high level.
9. 502 Bold Call: Louisville Forces Three Turnovers
Here’s where Louisville’s aggressiveness pays off.
I think the defense forces at least three turnovers Saturday. That’s a bold call against an offense this explosive, but SMU has already shown it’ll give you opportunities.
In the win at Florida State, the Mustangs turned it over four times — two interceptions and two lost fumbles — and still found a way to win.
Louisville’s defensive aggression comes with risk. Sometimes you’re going to gamble and lose. Saturday, in what should be a rowdy L&N Stadium, I think a few of those gambles hit.
502 Bold Call: Louisville forces 3+ turnovers.
10. 502 Score Prediction
LOUISVILLE 27 — SMU 24
Unfortunately, I’m not predicting that Louisville suddenly cures the slow-start problem.
I think SMU lands the first punch. Louisville falls behind 10-0 early.
Then the game settles down. The offensive line starts finding its footing. Kienholz gets comfortable. The defense creates a turnover. The crowd gets into it. Louisville finally finds its groove.
From there, it becomes exactly the kind of game we should probably expect between these two teams — four quarters, a handful of massive possessions and one or two plays deciding everything.
This time, Louisville makes them.
Cards 34. Mustangs 31. Get it done.
GO CARDS!