For weeks, Louisville kept showing us flashes of what this team could be. Friday night against Florida State, we finally got the whole thing. The response, the offensive line taking over, the run game exploding and the defense settling down after a rough start.
Now comes a different challenge. Can you bottle that? One great night can stop the bleeding. String a couple together, and suddenly it starts looking like a turning point.
1. Story of the Game: Was That the Turning Point?
That’s the question I keep coming back to. Was Florida State simply one great night, or did Louisville finally figure something out?
We’ve already seen both versions of this team. There have been explosive stretches where Louisville looks capable of playing with just about anybody, followed by mistakes and breakdowns that make you wonder how the same team can look so different from one week to the next. Friday gave us something different. Louisville took a punch, settled itself and then completely controlled the game.
Now prove it travels. This is the opportunity to stop alternating highs and lows and start stacking wins. If Florida State was really a turning point, Syracuse is where Louisville gets to prove it.
2. Know the Opponent: Don’t Let the Record Fool You
Syracuse is 2-3 and still looking for its first ACC win, but this isn’t a team Louisville should expect to simply roll over. The Orange lost to Cal by three, 21-18, then went on the road last week and outgained Virginia 430-288 before losing another three-point game, 28-25.
Now Syracuse finally gets to come home. Saturday will be its first game inside the Dome since Sept. 12, a stretch of more than a month without a home game. So forget 2-3 for a second. This is a team that has been competitive, has spent weeks on the road and finally gets back in front of its own crowd.
Louisville should be the better team. That doesn’t mean Syracuse is a pushover.
3. By the Numbers: 397
That’s how many rushing yards Louisville piled up against Florida State. Isaac Brown accounted for 235 of them on just 17 carries, including touchdown runs of 97 and 68 yards. The 97-yarder was the longest play from scrimmage in Louisville history.
That kind of performance changes the conversation. We knew Louisville had talented backs. What we hadn’t consistently seen was the offensive line opening lanes and letting them attack the second level before having to create everything themselves.
Now do it twice.
4. Watch This Early: Can We Finally Play From Ahead?
I’d love to experience a Louisville game this season where my blood pressure doesn’t need 15 minutes to stabilize.
Against Florida State, Louisville fell behind 14-0 before taking over. The response was fantastic, but maybe this week we can skip the part where we have to get punched first. Can Louisville come out, score early and dictate how the rest of the game is played?
There’s a huge difference between constantly reacting to what the other team is doing and getting a lead that allows Jeff Brohm to control the game. GI want to see Louisville get in front and then go for the throat.
5. Deciding Matchup: Louisville’s Run Game vs. Syracuse’s Front
You rush for 397 yards one week, this becomes the matchup until somebody proves they can stop it.
Syracuse has actually been respectable against the run. The Orange are allowing 144.4 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry, with opponents scoring nine rushing touchdowns through five games. Those aren’t dominant numbers, but they aren’t an invitation to just line up and expect another 400-yard afternoon either.
That makes this a nice test of whether what we saw against Florida State was sustainable.
6. Their Guy: Umari Hatcher
Louisville did a tremendous job keeping Florida State’s Duce Robinson from wrecking the game last week. Robinson finished with only two catches for 14 yards, and Florida State didn’t have a completion longer than 25 yards.
Now do it again without DJ Waller.
Umari Hatcher leads Syracuse with 560 receiving yards and enters Saturday coming off consecutive 100-yard performances. Louisville has spent too much of this season giving up the one pass that changes everything, so with another piece missing from the secondary, keeping the lid on the defense becomes even more important.
If Hatcher catches seven underneath, live with it. Just don’t let seven catches turn into 180 yards because two of them go over everybody’s head.
7. 502 MVP: Jaleel Skinner
Last week was a strange one for Louisville’s tight ends. The offense scored 44 points and rushed for nearly 400 yards, so there wasn’t exactly much reason to complain, but Jaleel Skinner finished with one catch for minus-one yard.
I’d like to see Brohm get him back involved. Skinner entered the Florida State game with 14 catches for 260 yards and three touchdowns, including scoring plays of 61 and 69 yards. He’s been one of Louisville’s most explosive weapons when the ball gets in his hands.
If Syracuse starts creeping defenders toward the line of scrimmage trying to slow down Isaac Brown, there should be opportunities behind them. Get Skinner moving, give Lincoln Kienholz that big target in the middle of the field and make Syracuse defend every part of the offense.
502 MVP pick: Jaleel Skinner, 75-plus yards and a touchdown.
8. Did You Know? Louisville Owns the Series, Except for One Annoying Detail
Louisville leads the all-time series 13-8 and has won seven of the nine meetings since joining the ACC. Sounds great.
Here’s the irritating part. Syracuse’s last four wins over Louisville have all come in Syracuse. The most recent was the 2022 season opener, when Louisville went into the Dome and got smacked 31-7.
So yes, Louisville has largely owned the series. Apparently Syracuse just saves its nonsense for when we come visit. Maybe we can end that trend Saturday night.
9. 502 Bold Call: Louisville Forces Three Turnovers
The turnover conversation has mostly centered on Louisville giving the ball away this season. Let’s flip it.
My bold call is that the defense forces three turnovers Saturday night. Louisville finally won the turnover battle against Florida State, and Kaleb Beasley picked off his fourth pass of the season late in the game.
I’d especially like to see a fumble or two. Punch one out. Get a helmet on the football. Create a short field for the offense instead of always asking it to drive 80 yards. Syracuse has uncertainty at quarterback, and Louisville should have opportunities to make somebody uncomfortable.
502 Bold Call: Three takeaways.
10. 502 Score Prediction: Louisville 35, Syracuse 21
I think Louisville comes out looking like a team that learned something from Friday night. Get on the board early, lean on an offensive line that just had its best performance of the season and make Isaac Brown Syracuse’s problem until they prove they can stop him. Keep the defense honest with Lincoln’s legs and take the shot when Syracuse starts cheating toward the run.
I don’t expect another 397 rushing yards because that’s ridiculous. Syracuse makes a few plays, Hatcher probably gets his catches and the Dome provides some resistance, but Louisville is the more talented team and this is where it needs to start acting like it consistently.
Build the lead, keep your foot down and get everybody out of there healthy.
Louisville 35, Syracuse 21.
Go Cards