Week 1 can tear through an entire summer’s worth of expectations pretty quickly.
New faces, transfers, new quarterbacks and rebuilt position groups all come together after months of offseason optimism. Then the ball gets kicked off and sometimes you find out you were right. Sometimes you find out you weren’t even close.
Across 12 season openers as a head coach, Jeff Brohm has seen a little bit of everything.
There have been blowouts, upsets, collapses and comebacks. Games his teams controlled and games they probably should have lost. But taken together, they point toward something that has followed Brohm from Western Kentucky to Purdue and now Louisville.
His teams tend to be ready to compete.
Brohm is 8–4 in season openers. His teams have averaged nearly 37 points per game, and perhaps the most telling number is this: Brohm has never lost an opener by more than seven points.
Louisville fans were actually on the receiving end of that preparation long before Brohm ever became their coach.
In 2017, Louisville entered the season ranked No. 16. Lamar Jackson was the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, the Cardinals had national expectations and Purdue was supposed to be little more than the first hurdle.
Instead, Brohm nearly helped derail Louisville’s season before it ever got started.
Purdue entered as a 25.5 point underdog and had won only nine games over the previous four seasons. Brohm was coaching his first game after taking over the program, yet the Boilermakers led Louisville 14–10 at halftime, stretched the advantage to 21–13 and held another lead in the fourth quarter before Jackson and the Cardinals finally escaped 35–28.
It was terrifying if you were a Louisville fan.
It was also hard not to watch Brohm take over a struggling program, have it ready to go immediately and wonder what that might someday look like at Louisville.
Six years later, Louisville got its answer, although Brohm’s first opener as the Cardinals’ head coach didn’t exactly begin comfortably.
Georgia Tech erupted for 28 points in the second quarter of the 2023 opener. Louisville went to halftime trailing 28–13, and after an offseason overflowing with excitement about Brohm’s homecoming, Card Nation suddenly had plenty to second-guess.
Then his team responded.
Louisville became more physical, settled into the game and outscored Georgia Tech 26–6 in the second half. The Cardinals forced a critical late turnover and found a way to escape with a 39–34 win.
The first half created plenty of doubt. The second showed some of the toughness Brohm has consistently tried to build into his teams.
Brohm in Season Openers
2014 — Western Kentucky 59, Bowling Green 31
Result: Win | Spread: WKU +7.5
2015 — Western Kentucky 14, Vanderbilt 12
Result: Win | Spread: WKU approximately -2
2016 — Western Kentucky 46, Rice 14
Result: Win | Spread: WKU -16
2017 — No. 16 Louisville 35, Purdue 28
Result: Loss | Spread: Purdue +25.5
2018 — Northwestern 31, Purdue 27
Result: Loss | Spread: Purdue approximately -3
2019 — Nevada 34, Purdue 31
Result: Loss | Spread: Purdue -11
2020 — Purdue 24, Iowa 20
Result: Win | Spread: Purdue +3.5
2021 — Purdue 30, Oregon State 21
Result: Win | Spread: Purdue -7
2022 — Penn State 35, Purdue 31
Result: Loss | Spread: Purdue +3.5
2023 — Louisville 39, Georgia Tech 34
Result: Win | Spread: Louisville -7.5
2024 — Louisville 62, Austin Peay 0
Result: Win | Spread: Louisville approximately -38
2025 — Louisville 51, Eastern Kentucky 17
Result: Win | Spread: Louisville -38.5
The spreads add some useful context. Brohm’s teams have entered four openers as underdogs and covered three of them, winning outright twice. His first Western Kentucky team was roughly a touchdown dog against Bowling Green and won by 28, while Purdue upset Iowa as an underdog in 2020.
Even the four losses tell a similar story. Northwestern won by four. Nevada won by three on a 56-yard field goal as time expired. Penn State needed a touchdown with 57 seconds remaining. Louisville won by seven.
There isn’t some secret Brohm Week 1 formula hiding in those numbers. The takeaway is simpler than that.
Brohm is a competitor, and his teams tend to take on that personality. He has shown an ability to bring new pieces together quickly, create belief and have a team prepared to fight before everything is necessarily polished.
That ability will be tested more than ever this week.
No. 24 Louisville heads to Nashville to face No. 9 Ole Miss as roughly a touchdown underdog. The Cardinals enter another season shaped by offseason change. This time, there won’t be much runway to settle in or work through the rough edges. Ole Miss will be ready, hungry and carrying big aspirations of its own.
It is the toughest Week 1 opponent Brohm has ever faced. History suggests Louisville will be ready for the fight.
Now it’s time to put on the gloves and start swinging.
Go Cards!